ever get the feeling that we're living in the end times?

This post over at Eschaton (which means, interestingly enough, 'The End Times') reminded me of a conversation I had with Rob in Croatia:

"Did you donate to Sarah's charity-run thing?"

"Yeah, I've been donating to all manner of charity things recently, like, runs and moustache-growing and tube-hikes and sailboat races and, y'know, like, I respect that people are trying to do good and help make the world a better place, but honestly I have to say I'm very pessimistic about the future of humanity as a whole, so generally consider donated money to be wasted money."

"What do you mean 'the future of humanity?'"

"Well, the way I see it, we're living in a pretty rare window of history, the fact that you and I can just jet over to Croatia like this, that fuel is cheap enough to do that. All indications that I can see (and we're not even taking into account China ramping up its fuel use), point to all of Earth's oil running out, or at least becoming so prohibitively expensive that it is only used for military uses, at some point within our lifetimes. Now, as [smartest-guy-I-know] Joe often points out, as this happens we'll switch to other, more cost-effective means of fuel as the price of oil rises and it becomes more efficient to do so. The only reason we use oil is because it's still the cheapest form of energy around, and the moment it isn't, we'll switch to whatever is. I'm not sure what we'll do about plastic. Recycle, maybe.

So I think in a hundred years or so we'll be all switched over to solar (or whatever) and humanity as a whole will be alright. But the transition, the switch from one to the other, is going to be bloody and awful and we're going to live through it, and I honestly believe that I am going to see the days where the majority of humanity will be far too worried about their next meal or how to get shelter over their heads to worry about how to cure cancer or AIDS.

What am I saying? The majority of the world is already in that state, and it seems clear that the proportion of people not in poverty is shrinking incrementally, and at some point in the next twenty years that divide is going to encompass most of the world, including you and me."

"But everyone says that. Everyone thinks there is going to be an apocalypse, but it never comes."

"But it does come. World War II was only a few minutes ago, historically speaking. That's the scale of change I'm talking about. Not world-destroying, not apocalyptic, just difficult and frightening and not fun to live through. Changes like that, like the depression and the plague and reality shows, I mean, they happen all the time, really. We're more than overdue for another one. If America or China attempt to take Siberia for its oil, that'd be more than enough of a spark to reignite a similarly-sized state of conflict. I'm not saying it'd be like World War II, I'm saying we can't really imagine what it'll be like to have to suddenly stop using oil, and have all fuel-dependant countries going on massive land-grabs for oil, but we can be assured that it won't be pretty, and that it will happen."

And, you know, I think Rob is right, I mean, people have been declaring 'the end of world' since the beginning of it, and certainly even those living through WW2 probably just figured 'well, this is life', and I'm sure we'll do the same and keep going. But I don't think the world can keep going as it is, and I do feel lucky, for now, to live in a relatively peaceful, prosperous world. Long may it continue.

I just have a sinking feeling that it won't, and while I definitely respect and admire all my good friends who see problems in the world, famine and cancer and AIDS, friends that try to take steps to help those problems be fixed- I have noting but admiration for those people (which is why I donate). But, if I have to be honest, and I don't say this to denigrate or upset anybody, I'm just trying to be honest, I really do feel as though there's an element of polishing knobs of the Titanic, so to speak, about the whole enterprise.